Global fuel crisis driven by Iran conflict and refining limits, not Ukraine strikes — expert

Serhii Kuyun of A-95 Consulting Group told Radio NV that the global fuel crunch stems mainly from Middle East supply disruptions and a worldwide refining capacity shortage, not from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries. He estimated Ukrainian strikes have cut Russian oil and petroleum output by roughly 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day, versus 10 to 12 million barrels per day disrupted by the Iran conflict.

Kuyun noted diesel has jumped to about $1,650 per ton while gasoline sits near $1,300, both up from a shared baseline near $1,000, which he says points to a diesel-specific shortage tied to aging, closed, or inefficient refineries rather than to Ukraine's campaign.

The piece notes President Trump has repeatedly pressed President Zelenskyy to halt the refinery strikes, explicitly linking them to rising global diesel prices, a claim the analyst's own numbers appear to undercut.

The full dispatch is available from the source below.