Consumer prices rose just 0.1% from June to July, with annual inflation at 3.4%, cooling for a second straight month after spring spikes tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Gas prices dipped slightly but remain up nearly 25% year-over-year, while grocery prices ticked down but beef keeps climbing. Wage growth has slowed to 3.2% annually, meaning pay is once again failing to keep pace with prices after a stretch when it briefly outran inflation.
Retail sales fell 0.6% in July, partly because June's Amazon Prime Day pulled forward online spending, though year-over-year spending on clothes, restaurants and gas stations all rose. Bank of America data shows lower-income shoppers increased spending in July while higher earners pulled back, a reversal of the long-running 'K-shaped economy' pattern. Congressional forecasters now expect this year's federal deficit to exceed $2 trillion, about $200 billion higher than projected six months ago, pushing cumulative federal debt toward $40 trillion with interest costs alone now topping $1 trillion annually.
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