Climate change parches Puerto Rico and Jamaica in rare early wet season drought

World Weather Attribution researchers found human-caused climate change reduced early wet-season rainfall by about 6% in Jamaica and 9% in Puerto Rico since May 2026, making extreme dry spells 40% and 30% more likely, respectively, compared with pre-industrial conditions. San Juan recorded its driest April-to-August stretch in 70 years, with rainfall 64% below average.

The drought forced 48-hour rotating water rationing for 180,000 customers in Puerto Rico's capital region and strict water-use prohibitions across seven Jamaican parishes. Researchers noted the Caribbean loses an average of 46% of its water to grid leakage, reaching 60% in Puerto Rico, meaning aging infrastructure compounds a climate-driven shortfall.

Scientists identified the North Atlantic Oscillation as the immediate driver of this year's drought, with El Niño expected to worsen conditions later in the year. Experts stressed that pre-existing inequality and infrastructure quality determine whether a hazard becomes a manageable inconvenience or a full-blown crisis.

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