Putin dismisses rumors of another mobilization as ‘nonsense.’ But can Russia keep fighting without another draft?

Vladimir Putin and a chorus of officials, from spokesman Dmitry Peskov to U.N. envoy Vasily Nebenzya, have spent the summer calling mobilization rumors nonsense and Ukrainian disinformation. The 2022 partial mobilization decree, notably, was never actually rescinded, meaning the legal machinery for a new draft is technically still switched on and has been the whole time.

Ukrainian officials, led by Volodymyr Zelensky, have repeatedly predicted a forced draft is coming, framing it as proof Russia can't replace its battlefield losses. Independent estimates, including one from a German economist tracking regional payroll data, put Russian recruitment at roughly 30,000 a month, undercutting the more dramatic Ukrainian claims, though nobody involved has hard numbers for 2026 losses.

The pattern from 2022 is doing a lot of quiet work here: a top Duma defense official assured the public there'd be no general mobilization two days before there was one, saved only by relabeling it 'partial.' Every current denial comes similarly hedged, with officials ruling the idea out 'for today' or 'at this moment,' phrasing built for exactly the kind of reversal that's happened before.

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