AI could help fossil fuel companies create more emissions

A study published in npj Climate Action, authored by former Microsoft sustainability employees Will and Holly Alpine, finds that AI's productivity boost to the fossil fuel industry could raise global emissions by nearly 5 percent — more than the emissions from the entire data center buildout. The estimated added emissions range from roughly Mexico's annual output at the low end to Russia's at the high end.

The researchers modeled AI as a productivity enhancer across oil and gas extraction, refining, and electricity generation, using industry-reported efficiency gains, and term the resulting pollution 'enabled emissions.' They argue tech companies measure their own operational and supply-chain emissions closely but do not account for how their AI tools help fossil fuel companies extract more oil and gas, a gap they say makes the industry's climate math incomplete.

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