Even meteorologists are baffled by the Midwestern tornado season

Illinois has recorded 207 tornadoes this year, already surpassing its previous record of 142 set two years ago, according to state climatologist Trent Ford. It's the third straight year of triple-digit tornado counts in a state whose historical average is roughly 50, with Illinois and Indiana now logging the highest tornado activity since federal tracking began in 1950.

Experts point to warmer Gulf of Mexico waters pumping more moisture into the atmosphere as a likely contributor, alongside an apparent eastward shift from the traditional Great Plains tornado corridor. Meteorologists caution, though, that a national picture shows this has actually been a below-average year overall, with the Southern Plains and Southeast quieter than usual.

Better radar and satellite resolution also mean smaller tornadoes are being counted that once would have gone unnoticed, complicating any clean before-and-after comparison. Scientists say hyperlocal tornado behavior remains far harder to model than hurricanes, leaving the climate-change connection unresolved even as the numbers pile up.

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