Trump plan to limit mail voting hinders Democrats more than GOP, analysis finds

A Fair Fight Action analysis of seven swing states found Democrats voted by mail more often than Republicans in 2024, including a roughly 200,000-vote Democratic edge in Michigan's mail ballots, a margin larger than recent presidential victory margins in the state. The group argues this means Trump's executive order restricting mail voting through new Postal Service requirements would disproportionately hurt Democratic turnout in 2026.

Trump has previously framed his opposition to mail voting in explicit partisan terms, tweeting in 2020 that mail voting would mean 'the end of our great Republican Party' and in 2025 that Democrats are 'virtually unelectable' without it. The Postal Service is meanwhile arguing in court that the rule is merely a technical mail specification, not an election regulation.

White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis called the policy a 'commonsense' security measure. A 2020 Stanford study of states with universal mail voting found no meaningful partisan effect, though researchers noted the practice became more polarized after 2020. The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the policy before the midterms.

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