Why Meduza’s map of the front line in Ukraine doesn’t look like DeepState’s or ISW’s, plus answers to dozens more questions from readers
Meduza used the second installment of its reader-question series to explain why its Ukraine front-line maps diverge sharply from those produced by DeepState and the Institute for the Study of War. The outlet says it relies solely on geolocated video, roughly 100 new clips a week, cross-checked against other projects' geolocations, while DeepState leans on anonymous Ukrainian military sources and pro-Russian trackers like LostArmour draw on Russian military sources.
The piece walks through why verification has gotten harder: flag-drops behind enemy lines meant to fake territorial control, suspected AI-generated Russian footage, and publication delays that can be spotted only by matching weather or damage details. Infiltration tactics have also deepened, with assault troops now turning up 10 to 15 kilometers behind front lines compared to a couple kilometers a year ago, complicating any clean rendering of who controls what.
On the substance readers actually asked about, Meduza states plainly that a Russian victory in the Donbas this year looks unlikely, with no guarantee of one over the medium term either, and that its own tracking has shown Russia favored in territorial balance since the Kursk operation began.
The full dispatch is available from the source below.