Meet the ‘independent voters’ who will likely decide which party triumphs in the 2026 midterms

With Cook Political Report listing just 22 House and seven Senate races as true toss-ups, both parties are courting independent voters to tip contests their base alone can't win. Recent polling cited shows independents souring on Trump: a September YouGov survey put his approval among independents at 23%, and a Fox News poll found 73% of independents saying he's made the economy worse.

Independents also registered discontent with the Iran war, with only 22% calling it worth fighting and 83% doubting the administration has a clear plan to end it. Turnout among independents typically lags in midterms, though an Emerson College poll found 70% of them very excited to vote this cycle, matching partisan enthusiasm.

Republican pollster David Winston has warned his own party about these 'unhappy independents.' The piece notes Trump wants the midterms framed as a referendum on himself to boost turnout among low-propensity supporters, a strategy that risks reminding independents exactly why they're unhappy.

The full dispatch is available from the source below.