Labor votes: Discontent will accompany blue‑collar voters to the polls in the midterms

A labor studies scholar surveys the mood of unionized and blue-collar voters heading into the midterms, finding little to cheer: food prices up 3 percent since last July, roughly 400,000 federal jobs cut, and 75,000 manufacturing jobs lost since January 2025 despite campaign promises to bring manufacturing back. Union membership overall has fallen to 10 percent of the workforce, down from 20.1 percent in 1983.

The Trump administration's tariffs get partial credit for making domestic manufacturing more attractive, per one economist quoted, but analysts note that modern factories need far fewer workers, so any revival won't translate into many jobs. Meanwhile a March 2025 executive order aimed at ending collective bargaining for federal unions has drawn condemnation from the American Federation of Government Employees and has been pushed back by arbitrators and at least one federal judge.

The piece frames this as a test: whether candidates who show practical empathy toward economic anxiety can capture union votes in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, where union density runs above the national average.

The full dispatch is available from the source below.