Separatists win Quebec election but vow to wait on referendum

The separatist Parti Québécois won Quebec's provincial election with 28% of the vote, the lowest share ever for a governing party there, taking 59 of 125 seats, five short of a majority. Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon becomes premier and says he'll hold off on an independence referendum until at least 2028, explicitly waiting out Donald Trump's time in the White House.

The result reshuffled the Assembly dramatically: the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec won 13.3% of the vote but zero seats under the first-past-the-post system, while the Conservative Party took 19 seats in its best result ever. Political scientists note Quebec minority governments typically survive only 18 to 24 months, meaning this mandate, and any path to a referendum, is far from secure.

Analysts flagged that a divided Quebec-Ottawa front on trade and tariffs, with the PQ already critical of Canada's retaliatory measures against the U.S., would likely be welcomed in Washington as a weaker united Canadian position.

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