How Trump’s disaster aid delays and FEMA cuts could galvanize the ‘movable middle’ in the 2026 elections
A civic-engagement researcher reviews data showing FEMA major disaster declarations now take nearly 10 weeks on average under the Trump administration, up from three weeks or less over the prior two decades, with 26% of requests denied in 2025 versus a historical average of 15%. An independent review found about 85% of requests from states that backed Trump in 2024 were eventually approved, compared with roughly half from states that backed Harris, a partisan gap an Associated Press analysis called unmatched by any president since 1989.
FEMA lost over 17% of trained staff in 2025, and a plan to cut the agency's workforce by half was ruled unlawful by a judge in September 2026 after initial talk from the administration of abolishing FEMA entirely. The piece cites specific delays: a three-day wait to approve search-and-rescue funding after the 2025 Texas Hill Country floods, a seven-week delay on 2026 Texas flood aid, and denied assistance to Michigan after March 2026 storms.
The administration says it is simply conducting more thorough reviews, though the author notes survivors in need of temporary housing and repair grants don't have the luxury of waiting. The piece argues frustrated political moderates in disaster-hit swing states could become a decisive midterm factor.
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