Is Russia’s fuel crisis a temporary squeeze or the collapse of an industry? Two leading economists debated the question, unable to agree on how much refining capacity is left.

Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center fellow Sergey Vakulenko and commentator Vyacheslav Shiryaev debated on The Breakfast Show over how much damage Ukrainian drone strikes have done to Russian oil refining, with estimates ranging from a 25-28% drop (Vakulenko) to 65-70% (Shiryaev). Shiryaev pointed to long gas station lines and an official statement that the Orsk refinery won't run for six months as evidence of near-collapse; Vakulenko argued Ukraine has the physical capacity to halt production in European Russia but that the plants haven't yet reached a point of irreparable damage.

Both agreed the underlying vulnerability is real: cheap, numerous drones overwhelm existing defenses even at high interception rates, and continued strikes could push gasoline prices sharply higher, whether through market forces or deliberate policy choices by the Russian state.

The full dispatch is available from the source below.