Why fuel prices may go higher still

Global oil prices have climbed from about $65 a barrel before the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran to more than $100 a barrel by mid-September, as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sits below 15% of prewar levels. Saudi Arabia's overland pipeline, which briefly picked up slack, was itself knocked offline by attacks Riyadh blames on Iran-backed militias, and is only slowly restarting.

Diesel hit record highs across 47 U.S. states on Sept. 22, averaging $6.52 a gallon, while Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and a Russian export ban squeezed global diesel supply further. President Trump responded by threatening to ban U.S. diesel exports, a move analysts say would tighten global supply and push world prices higher rather than help.

Americans spent $117 billion more on gasoline and diesel between March and September than in the same period a year earlier, on top of the Pentagon's estimated $45 billion cost of the war itself. Strategic reserves that once cushioned shocks are now depleted: the U.S. reserve sits at a 40-year low after releasing 130 million barrels, and China's undisclosed reserve releases and electric-vehicle-driven demand cuts have done more to hold prices down than anything Washington has managed.

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