Labor votes: Discontent will accompany blue‑collar voters to the polls in the midterms

Union membership has fallen from 20.1% of U.S. workers in 1983 to 10.0% in 2025, but in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, union voters remain concentrated enough to sway close midterm races. Manufacturing employment has dropped 75,000 jobs since January 2025, food prices rose 3.0% year-over-year in July, and roughly 400,000 federal jobs — many unionized — were cut during Trump's second term, all feeding what a labor scholar describes as blue-collar weariness heading to the polls.

The Trump administration's March 2025 executive order sought to end collective bargaining agreements across federal agencies, prompting condemnation from the American Federation of Government Employees, which called the move an illegal stripping of bargaining rights. Independent arbitrators in 2026 ruled against the administration's efforts to bypass existing labor agreements, and a federal judge in Massachusetts struck down its attempt to control union elections at federal agencies. Polling cited in the piece suggests Trump's support among union households is eroding as the manufacturing and inflation promises from his 2024 campaign remain largely unmet.

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