Climate change drove extreme July heat in European seas, study finds

World Weather Attribution scientists found that human-caused climate change was the primary driver of unprecedented July 2026 sea surface temperatures across European coastal waters, with the Celtic Sea, Bay of Biscay, Iberian Peninsula and both Mediterranean basins averaging 2.4°C above historical baselines. In the Eastern Mediterranean, climate change accounted for the entire 2°C anomaly.

The study found such temperatures would have been 'virtually impossible' before industrialization but are now 'relatively common.' Researchers say the likelihood of Celtic Sea marine heat waves has risen from 30% to 80% of the area affected, and Eastern Mediterranean heat waves from 9% to 70%.

Scientists warn the warming triggers mass die-offs of corals and macroalgae, since most marine life is cold-blooded and cannot regulate against rapid metabolic stress, with further warming of 1.3-1.9°C expected by century's end absent a shift away from fossil fuels.

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