Evidence builds showing climate change could be intensifying El Niño events

A potentially record-breaking El Niño is forecast to peak between October and December 2026, and a pre-print study found an event this size is six times more likely due to climate change, according to Columbia climate scientist Mark Cane. A coral study from the Galapagos, spanning roughly 1,000 years of sea-surface temperature data, found El Niño intensity has increased 36.5% over the last 40 years, tracking the same curve as global warming.

Researchers caution the picture is incomplete: pre-1981 data is sparse, models disagree on whether future warming will intensify or weaken El Niño, and one scientist has published two papers reaching opposite conclusions using different models. Even supporters of the intensification trend, like University of Idaho's Christopher Callahan, note it's hard to fully separate climate change from natural random variation in the system.

The coral and tree-ring records agree on what's already happened. What none of them can do, researchers stress, is say how much stronger El Niños will get or when the trend might stop.

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