August job boom more than triples expectations

The August jobs report showed 162,000 jobs added, blowing past forecasts of roughly 50,000, while July's reported loss of 23,000 jobs was revised into a gain of 21,000 and June ticked up another 11,000. Unemployment held at 4.1% in what economists are calling a “no hire, no fire” labor market. Local government alone flipped from a 53,000-job loss in July to a 42,000-job gain in August, despite total local government employment being essentially flat since last year.

Restaurants and bars added 59,000 jobs, manufacturing gained 16,000, and healthcare and construction posted smaller increases, even as ADP's private payroll count for the same month showed just 38,000 jobs added, the slowest pace of 2026. Companies with more than 500 employees took nearly all of ADP's gains, while mid-sized firms went nowhere. Wage growth is also splitting: job switchers saw pay rise 4.7% while those staying put got 3%.

Job openings and the quits rate barely moved, per the latest JOLTS data, and labor force participation has dropped 0.7% since January. Meanwhile a National Federation of Independent Business survey found nearly a third of small business owners have unfilled openings, well above historical norms, but only 17% plan to hire in the next three months, down from the prior survey.

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