Compared to driving, flying is extraordinarily safe – but why doesn’t it feel that way?

A report from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University's Boeing Center for Aviation and Aerospace Safety, analyzing U.S. commercial airline data from 2016 through 2025, found that per mile traveled, driving carries about 626 times the fatality risk of flying and motorcycling carries more than 22,000 times the risk. Over that decade, 73 people died in U.S. commercial airline accidents, against roughly one fatality per 97.7 million boardings.

Researchers note this pattern isn't new: earlier studies from 2013, 2018 and 2022 reached similar conclusions, and after the Sept. 11 attacks, researchers estimated hundreds to over a thousand additional road deaths as people avoided flying and drove instead. Much of that shift happened on local roads, not highways, suggesting broader changes in travel habits rather than simple substitution of one long trip for another.

The report's authors argue that rare, vivid catastrophes get outsized attention while familiar, frequent hazards go underweighted, a pattern that shapes real behavior with real consequences on the road.

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