46% of wild-caught fish could be fed to farmed fish and shrimp by 2040, says report

A report from the Changing Markets Foundation and University of British Columbia researchers estimates that if aquaculture grows in line with a 2023 FAO roadmap milestone, wild-caught fish used for fish feed could rise from about 20% today to as much as 46% by 2040, depending heavily on which species get farmed. Growth concentrated in carnivorous species like shrimp, salmon and sea bream drives the higher estimates, while growth in shellfish or carp keeps demand much lower.

FAO official Manuel Barange disputed that the 75% growth figure cited in the report is an actual target, calling it merely 'a discussion on options,' and pointed instead to a separate 35%-by-2030 target from an earlier FAO document. The Changing Markets Foundation also alleges Norway, the world's top salmon producer, funded and influenced FAO guideline consultations, which Norway's government denies, saying it funds only development cooperation, not business-oriented research.

Small-scale fishing groups at the FAO's Committee on Fisheries meeting in Rome called industrial aquaculture 'destructive,' arguing it takes fish and livelihoods from local communities to produce farmed seafood for wealthier markets. Barange said the guidelines were adopted by consensus and predicted marine ingredient use would not grow, citing improvements in feed efficiency.

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