Meet the ‘independent voters’ who will likely decide which party triumphs in the 2026 midterm elections

With Cook Political Report listing only 22 House and seven Senate races as true toss-ups, a political scientist argues independents will decide control of Congress. Recent polling shows independent approval of Trump at 23% in a September YouGov survey, with 73% saying in a Fox News poll he's made the economy worse, and 83% doubting the administration has a clear plan on the Iran war.

The piece notes independents' turnout typically lags in midterms, though a recent Emerson poll found 70% expressing enthusiasm about voting, on par with partisans. Candidates face the challenge of firing up their base with sharp rhetoric while courting independents who recoil from partisan rancor, a balancing act the piece argues is harder for Republicans given Trump's push to make the election about himself.

The full dispatch is available from the source below.