Crime in England and Wales, including violent crime, has fallen roughly 90% over the past 30 years, yet only 6% of the public believes it while 61% think it's rising, according to the piece. It argues this gap between perception and reality is driving a prison overcrowding crisis, as politicians across parties respond to public alarm by pushing ever-longer sentences.
The piece cites former justice secretary David Gauke's report, which recommended suspending short sentences, expanding early release for good behaviour, and boosting probation; early release was subsequently cut from 50% to 33% of sentence served after political pressure following high-profile cases. It points to the case of PC Andrew Harper's killers, whose scheduled early release under existing rules prompted the government to seek ways to keep them in prison longer, raising concerns about retroactively bending sentencing law for individual cases.
Gauke is quoted saying prison doesn't reduce crime and that countries with lower incarceration rates often have less crime still, while England and Wales has the highest incarceration rate in western Europe despite falling crime.
The full dispatch is available from the source below.