Putin relying on massive long-range strikes to force Ukraine to surrender by 2027 — ISW

The Institute for the Study of War assessed on September 27 that Vladimir Putin is shifting toward massive combined missile and drone strikes aimed at forcing Ukraine's surrender before spring 2027, after the frontline stalled with little net Russian territorial gain. Even a Kremlin-aligned military blogger conceded the stall and warned against assuming Russia can sustain the strike pace indefinitely.

The strategy leans on Ukraine's difficulty intercepting jet-powered drones and its shortage of Patriot interceptors through the winter, betting that energy infrastructure will buckle under pressure. Putin said on September 25 that Ukraine 'must feel' Russia's retaliatory strikes, signaling more escalation ahead.

Overnight strikes on Kyiv killed two people and wounded nearly ten at a market, with additional damage to an apartment building, offices, and a gas station, wounding three minors. Kharkiv was also hit by guided bombs, with one striking a residential high-rise and wounding at least 20.

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