Ethiopia is sliding back toward war – a look at what is driving the fighting and why it matters

Ethiopia is sliding back toward full conflict as Tigray People's Liberation Front fighters seized federal positions in northern Ethiopia on September 23, following months of federal air and drone strikes on Tigray that reportedly hit schools, homes, and a food aid truck. A new seven-group alliance, including former rivals TPLF and Fano, has announced it wants to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.

The 2022 Pretoria ceasefire stopped the shooting but never delivered the political settlement, disarmament, or Tigray's reintegration into federal institutions that were promised. Eritrea, accused by Addis Ababa of backing the new alliance, denies involvement, while unresolved territorial claims in western and southern Tigray have left hundreds of thousands displaced and unable to return home.

Federal forces claim to have retaken the supply hub Alamata, but the underlying constitutional fight over regional autonomy and power-sharing that started the 2020-2022 war, which killed as many as 600,000 people, remains exactly where it was.

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