District attorney elections linked to more prison admissions during ‘tough on crime’ era

A Northwestern University study examining more than 4,200 district attorneys across nearly 40 states found that state prison admissions ran about 3% higher in years when district attorneys faced election, compared with non-election years, during the 1986-2006 'tough on crime' era. That gap translates to roughly 63,000 additional prison admissions over the period, concentrated mostly in less serious, nonviolent cases rather than violent crime.

Economist Chika Okafor, the study's author, found prison admissions were about 4.3% higher in election years than the preceding year, with sentence lengths rising similarly, and that the effect was strongest in Southern and Republican-leaning counties. He noted murder cases showed little election-cycle variation, likely because voters remember them regardless of timing.

The study stops short of claiming elections caused the broader national rise in incarceration, and its authors caution it measures only one slice of the political pressure prosecutors face. Okafor argues the findings suggest public attitudes toward punishment deserve as much scrutiny as the officeholders responding to them.

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