Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket let users bet on election outcomes, with an NBC News analysis finding nearly $200 million wagered on midterm results across the two platforms. Election officials, including Los Angeles County's Dean Logan, say early results diverging from market odds — as happened in June's LA mayoral primary — has already fueled suspicion of normal vote-counting procedures. Most states have laws restricting election betting, though many predate these platforms and haven't been tested in court.
Unlike scientific polling, prediction markets are open to anyone and give more influence to bigger bettors, raising concern among officials that odds could be manipulated to sway public perception or even incentivize efforts to affect actual outcomes. Delaware County, Pennsylvania's elections director has banned poll workers from using these markets at all, comparing it to referees betting on their own game. Kalshi has separately clashed with Wisconsin officials over a 19th-century law barring voters from betting on races they cast ballots in, with a Kalshi staffer accusing the state of 'active voter suppression.'
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