Mangroves keep waves at bay. A new study helps scientists predict how

Researchers at Sun Yat-sen University's M5 lab developed a simplified equation, the HU method, that uses calm-weather wave data to predict how much mangrove forests will blunt storm waves, testing it against real measurements from Typhoon Yagi in 2024. At a restored mangrove site on China's Zhanjiang coast, waves nearly three feet high at the forest's edge dropped to about 1.18 feet after passing through a football-field length of mangroves, and the site reliably cut wave height by 44 to 70 percent throughout the monitoring period.

The method, published in Climate Risk Management, replaces a heavy set of calculations involving plant density, drag coefficients and turbulence with just two variables, and reportedly outperformed existing models that showed large deviations from the real Yagi data. The team has released an online tool letting engineers or restoration planners estimate how many mangroves would be needed to hit a given level of storm protection.

Researchers say the tool could help coastal communities, particularly in developing countries reliant on mangroves, plan natural defenses before disaster strikes, given that more than 87 million people were affected by climate-related disasters in 2025.

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