Can you legally bet on who wins Congress? States and the Trump administration disagree.
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket let users bet on which party will control Congress, with Polymarket putting Democrats at a 90% chance of winning the House, even as 23 states ban election betting outright and Arizona has filed criminal charges against Kalshi.
Minnesota passed a near-total ban on the platforms this year, with state Rep. Emma Greenman arguing the markets erode trust in elections themselves. The companies insist their contracts are federally regulated swaps, not wagers, and point to a Commodity Futures Trading Commission that currently has exactly one sitting commissioner, Trump appointee Michael Selig.
Selig has proposed a rule preserving election betting and publicly vowed to defend federal jurisdiction against states 'seeking to nullify federal law.' Eighteen watchdog groups warned the rule ignores the risk of incentivizing election interference, a concern the single-member commission has yet to address with anything beyond a social media post.
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