Agora Energiewende warned Friday that Germany risks missing an annual climate target in 2026 for the first time, with emissions projected to land 10 million metric tons above the legal cap even as they fall about 2% this year.
The think tank said the drop is driven largely by weaker oil demand tied to a Middle East energy shock rather than policy success, and that hitting the 2030 goal of a 65% cut would require roughly 40 million tonnes of annual savings — far outpacing current trends.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz said 'long-term lessons' would be drawn from a summer of drought and heat waves, while an independent government-appointed climate council separately warned in May that Germany is off track.
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