ISW explains why Russia is intensifying strikes on Ukraine-Moldova border

The Institute for the Study of War says Russian forces intensified strikes on Ukrainian and Moldovan border infrastructure through August to disrupt Ukraine's overland export routes and unsettle carriers using the crossings. Targets since late July have included the Zatoka and Mayaky bridges near Odesa and the Vynohradivka-Vulcănești, Reni-Giurgiulești and Tabaky crossings near Izmail.

Ukraine's Border Guard Service says Russian forces struck Odesa Oblast crossings along the Moldovan border three times since Aug. 20 alone, temporarily suspending traffic at Tabaky. ISW frames the campaign as a dual effort: isolating Ukraine from Europe economically while discouraging Moldova, Romania and international carriers from using the routes at all.

ISW also raises the possibility of broader intimidation aimed at Moldova's Western integration, alongside a parallel campaign against port infrastructure targeting grain exports. The institute says Russia is using the strikes to test Moldovan and NATO responses while normalizing the violations.

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