The New York Times reported that CIA Director John Ratcliffe delivered a bleak U.S. assessment of Russia's war prospects during an Aug. 25 Moscow visit, urging Russian authorities to cut a deal before their military and economic situation worsens. He reportedly conveyed this to FSB chief Aleksandr Bortnikov without threatening any consequences if Putin ignores it.
CIA analysts have long doubted whether Putin's own advisers give him honest assessments of the war's trajectory, per the report. Some U.S. officials hoped a message from the CIA director specifically would land harder with Putin, himself a former intelligence officer, than one through normal diplomatic channels.
Last year Trump and close advisers reportedly believed a Russian battlefield victory was inevitable; since then Russia has taken heavy losses and stalled on the front. Earlier reporting suggested Ratcliffe's trip was primarily meant to warn Russia against attacking NATO, and it remains unclear whether this messaging reflects any shift in U.S. policy.
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