Russia unable to mount rapid breakthrough even if Kostyantynivka falls — ISW

The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian forces will not achieve a rapid breakthrough or seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast even if they fully capture Kostyantynivka. Russian infantry continue infiltrating the city, but ISW says the main force has not moved in to consolidate those gains, while Ukrainian defenders hold positions in the northern sectors and have partially withdrawn to the eastern bank of the Kryvyi Torets River.

Military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported Russian troops seizing the nearby village of Illinivka and advancing north of a key road, likely attempting to bypass fortified Ukrainian positions. The Kremlin has repeatedly framed Kostyantynivka's capture as essential to a larger push toward Sloviansk, Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk. Putin's own commanders reportedly told him Donbas could fall entirely by autumn 2026, a timeline since pushed back to year's end.

The full dispatch is available from the source below.