Harry Enten Names The 1 Race That Will Likely Flip Senate For Democrats

Filed 1h ago · Via HuffPost · The Buffoon Desk

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Amazing Plan - Distressed

Kevin MacLeod · incompetech.com · CC BY 4.0

Photo: HatschiKa · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons

CNN analyst Harry Enten says Democrats' odds of retaking the Senate climb to 78 percent if James Talarico defeats Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, citing aggregated forecasts giving Talarico a 70 percent chance of winning.

Enten frames Texas as the fourth most likely seat to flip, the threshold Democrats need to reclaim a majority, and points to a Fox News poll showing Talarico up two points and a New York Times polling average showing him up six.

The race pits Talarico against Paxton, who carries Trump's backing and a history of personal scandal, in a state Democrats have not managed to turn blue in recent cycles.

The full dispatch is available from the source below.

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Probability numbers delivered with this much enthusiasm always deserve a second look, especially six weeks before anyone actually casts a ballot. Polling averages move like weather vanes in a gusty yard, and a two-point lead in one poll is not exactly a landslide carved in stone. Enjoy the rocket metaphor while it lasts, because rockets have been known to come back down.

Source: Read the original at HuffPost → Scored: Amazing Plan - Distressed · Kevin MacLeod · CC BY 4.0

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