World must look to the past to prepare for likely unprecedented El Niño

Forecasters now put a 90% chance on the 2026-27 El Niño being very strong and a 69% chance it breaks all previous records, with sea surface anomalies already past the very-strong threshold as of mid-July. The WHO, WMO and World Food Programme are urging governments to prepare for cascading damage to health, food and energy systems, with the WFP warning up to 49 million more people could face acute food insecurity across 45 countries.

Some governments are visibly moving: Brazil has hired more firefighters for Amazon fire season, Peru has declared emergencies across 40% of its territory, and Sri Lanka and India are lining up drought contingency plans. The WFP has also launched a $202 million anticipatory-action appeal for 22 high-risk nations, an amount it considers urgent rather than optional.

Historians point to the 1877-78 El Niño, which killed an estimated 50 million people in a world with zero warning systems, as the grim baseline modern forecasting was supposed to make obsolete. Experts interviewed note that despite months of lead time this year, past very strong events still produced major death tolls and economic damage, suggesting prediction has outpaced preparation.

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