Why carbon markets alone won’t save Southeast Asia’s concessions forests

A new study using satellite data found roughly 42 million hectares of intact forest still standing inside commercial logging, timber, rubber and oil palm concessions across Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Myanmar — an area larger than Malaysia itself. Clearing it, researchers calculate, could release 1.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide over the next 30 years. Study lead Annabel Lim of the National University of Singapore called it a chance to engage concession owners as conservation partners.

The catch: current carbon credit prices for avoided deforestation in Southeast Asia run $5 to $12 per metric ton, far below the $33 to $1,677 the researchers say would be needed to make conservation competitive with logging or agriculture. Senior author Yiwen Zeng said carbon finance alone 'will not be sufficient,' pointing instead to blended finance, green bonds and biodiversity credits as necessary supplements.

Outside researcher Matthew Struebig noted that many regional governments require concession holders to develop land or risk losing their licenses, meaning even generous carbon prices won't move companies unwilling to jeopardize land tenure. The study's authors say real progress requires governments, banks and corporations to reform concession rules and redirect subsidies and logging loans toward preservation instead.

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