With midterms less than 70 days away, election analysts tell States Newsroom that Democrats remain favored to retake the U.S. House, citing Trump's low approval ratings, unpopular strikes on Iran and economic concerns. The GOP holds a narrow 218-212 majority, with Cook Political Report listing 21 toss-up races, 16 of them currently held by Republicans.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll from Aug. 24 put Trump's approval at 33%, tying his lowest mark since 2017, with only 31% approving of the Iran strikes. Republicans point to redistricting gains, a fundraising edge and Democratic primary wins by more progressive candidates as reasons for optimism.
Campaign spokespeople from both parties offered dueling statements: Democrats call the GOP agenda universally hated, Republicans call Democratic nominees 'radical socialists.' Analysts note Democrats have yet to articulate a clear alternative beyond opposing Trump.
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