The Human Rights Campaign estimates 13.34% of Arizonans identify as LGBTQ, a bloc its spokesperson Ramiro Sarmiento says could determine outcomes in a state where recent races were decided by a single percentage point or, in one case, 280 votes. A survey cited found 92% of LGBTQ respondents plan to vote in the midterms compared to 68% of others.
A Republican-backed ballot measure would restrict transgender girls from joining sports teams, including private ones, and expose schools to lawsuits over bathroom and locker-room use. Gov. Katie Hobbs has vetoed similar GOP proposals, while gubernatorial candidate Andy Biggs and attorney general candidate Warren Petersen have both supported restrictive measures.
Petersen personally went to court to defend Arizona's trans sports ban after Attorney General Kris Mayes declined to. HRC's analysis found 54% of LGBTQ adults are under 35, which Sarmiento frames as a growing, durable voting bloc.
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