With costs high and Trump unpopular, Democrats favored to retake the House
With midterms less than 70 days away, political analysts tell States Newsroom that Democrats remain favored to retake the House, citing Trump's weak approval ratings, unpopular Iran strikes, and economic anxiety. Trump's approval sits at 33% per a late-August Reuters/Ipsos poll, tying his lowest mark since 2017, with just 31% backing the Iran strikes.
Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-212 majority, with 21 races rated toss-ups by the Cook Political Report — 16 of them GOP-held. Republicans point to a $13.7 million cash advantage and favorable redistricting; Democrats point to cost-of-living anger and message discipline.
Both parties' campaign committees issued dueling statements of confidence, with Republicans blaming 'radical socialist nominees' and Democrats blaming 'devastating health care cuts.' Analysts note Democrats still haven't articulated a clear alternative beyond opposing Trump.
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