Disappearing lakes, old photos and AI are helping scientists map Arctic permafrost thaw in near-real time

Researchers are using AI-assisted analysis of satellite and aerial imagery to track permafrost thaw across the Arctic in near-real time, monitoring over 4 million lakes and 70 million smaller ponds through the Permafrost Discovery Gateway. The key signal is disappearance: thermokarst lakes that took centuries to form can drain within hours once ice-rich permafrost beneath them thaws.

Alaska's Seward and Baldwin peninsulas are hotspots, having lost many long-standing lakes over two decades, including roughly 200 lakes losing a quarter of their area in a single warm summer in 2018. Even in a comparatively cold 2025-26 winter, researchers found about 30 more lakes affected by drainage in June and July 2026.

The maps aim to help Arctic communities avoid building on unstable, ice-rich ground, replacing what used to be years-old scientific publications with something closer to a live hazard map.

The full dispatch is available from the source below.