Ditching Chinese Rare Earths Is Hard. Just Ask Japan.

A Foreign Policy analysis examines Japan's decade-and-a-half effort to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths after Beijing halted shipments in 2010 over a geopolitical dispute. Tokyo poured money into stockpiles, off-take agreements, and firms like Australia's Lynas, cutting its reliance on Chinese imports to about 58 percent by 2018.

China has again squeezed supply this time reportedly in response to the Japanese prime minister's remarks on Taiwan, with customs data showing continued curbs on heavy rare earths into Japan as recently as June. A CSIS report co-authored by mining economist Gracelin Baskaran calls claims of Japanese de-risking 'misguided,' noting Japan remains the world's largest importer of rare-earth metals and still leans on countries like Vietnam whose supply chains run through China anyway.

The piece frames this as a warning for Washington, which is racing to do in a few years what Japan couldn't fully manage in sixteen. Japanese automakers have already had to halt production over the 2025 curbs, a preview of what awaits anyone assuming diversification is a switch you can flip.

The full dispatch is available from the source below.